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Causal Cognitions Lab

Belief updating

How do people gather and evaluate evidence to support their beliefs? We investigate how lay people and experts use evidence to assess their theories, exploring both strengths and shortcomings in human reasoning. We also seek to develop formal methods to improve the quality of reasoning in law, medicine, intelligence analysis, business and other applied domains.

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Rationality in Belief Updating:
Misinformation, Source Credibility, and Political Worldview

Project Team: Greta Arancia Sanna (University College London),

Prof. David Lagnado (University College London)

This research investigates how individuals update their beliefs when confronted with contradictory and potentially misleading information, focusing on the role of source credibility and political worldview congruence. Greta Arancia Sanna, alongside Prof. David Lagnado, examines whether belief updating aligns with Bayesian rationality and how misinformation influences decision-making, particularly in politically charged contexts. By analyzing participants’ responses to allegations and corrections from sources of varying credibility, the project aims to understand cognitive processes in belief revision and their implications for misinformation resilience.

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Preventing Miscarriages of Justice: A Training Approach to Improve Legal Factfinders' Evidence Evaluation

Project Team (PMJ project): Leya Lisa Hampson (University of Groningen/ UCL), Prof. David Lagnado (UCL), Prof. Anne Ruth Mackor (University of Groningen), Prof. Christian Dahlman (Lund University), Dr. Moa Lidén (Uppsala University), Dr. Hylke Jellema (University of Groningen)

This research explores whether training can improve legal factfinders' ability to evaluate evidence and reduce probabilistic reasoning errors, which can contribute to wrongful convictions or acquittals. Through psychological experiments, the study assesses the effectiveness of a new training method that integrates Bayesian Probability Theory and Scenario Theory, combining precise probabilistic reasoning with more intuitive, explanatory-based evaluation techniques. While biases are well-documented within the legal context, research on probabilistic fallacies remains scarce. As a part of the broader Preventing Miscarriages of Justice initiative, the project thus aims to strengthen rational legal proof and minimise the risk of miscarriages of justice. 

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Cognitive Models in Legal Decision-Making

Project Team: Helen Qiao (University College London), Prof. David Lagnado (University College London)

This project investigates cognitive models used by fact-finders in legal decision-making, focusing on how response mode and evidence presentation order influence judgments. Additionally, it examines whether participants' probability of guilt assessments align with Bayesian predictions across different conditions. This project aims to deepen our understanding of legal reasoning and improve decision-making frameworks in judicial contexts.

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Auxiliary Hypotheses and Computational Trade-Offs in Belief Updating

Project Team: Trisevgeni Papakonstantinou (University College London), Prof. David Lagnado (University College London)

Belief revision is constrained by cognitive limitations, with evidence alone often failing to drive change. Research suggests that resistance to epistemic change is not necessarily irrational but stems from the need to maintain internal coherence within complex belief networks. When confronted with conflicting information, individuals employ strategies like modifying auxiliary hypotheses to preserve coherence rather than overhauling their belief system entirely, consistent with the Duhem-Quine thesis. This approach minimises cognitive effort, as belief revision is resource-intensive, and ignoring evidence also carries cognitive costs. I study how interventions shape belief network formation and revision, focusing on trade-offs between accuracy, coherence, and cognitive effort. This project examines how belief networks form and evolve, investigating the trade-offs between maintaining internal consistency, aligning with external evidence, and managing cognitive demands. Through experimental studies, we explores the conditions under which people prioritise coherence over accuracy, how cognitive load influences the restructuring of belief networks, and whether there are thresholds that determine when minor updates, core adjustments, or complete revisions occur. A computational approach helps formalise these processes, modelling belief revision as a sequential local search within a single causal framework. These studies aim to advance understanding of how individuals integrate new information while maintaining functional belief networks, and have broad implications for understanding the persistence of misinformation, resistance to epistemic change, and the mechanisms underlying rational belief maintenance in the face of conflicting evidence.

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Relative Roles of Prior Beliefs and Argument Quality on the Perceived Quality of Everyday Arguments 

People interpret arguments in different ways, and even the same argument can be interpreted very differently by different people. Our research looks at the both the individual and argument level differences that make ‘everyday’ arguments, such as those on social media, persuasive. We also investigate the mechanisms in which people's prior beliefs seem to influence the way they evaluate related arguments, and potential interventions to encourage people to evaluate arguments more objectively. 

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Adaptive Moral Learning: How Reinforcement Learning Predicts Moral Decision-Making and Donation Behavior

Belief revision is constrained by cognitive limitations, with evidence alone often failing to drive change. Research suggests that resistance to epistemic change is not necessarily irrational but stems from the need to maintain internal coherence within complex belief networks. When confronted with conflicting information, individuals employ strategies like modifying auxiliary hypotheses to preserve coherence rather than overhauling their belief system entirely, consistent with the Duhem-Quine thesis. This approach minimises cognitive effort, as belief revision is resource-intensive, and ignoring evidence also carries cognitive costs. I study how interventions shape belief network formation and revision, focusing on trade-offs between accuracy, coherence, and cognitive effort. This project examines how belief networks form and evolve, investigating the trade-offs between maintaining internal consistency, aligning with external evidence, and managing cognitive demands. Through experimental studies, we explores the conditions under which people prioritise coherence over accuracy, how cognitive load influences the restructuring of belief networks, and whether there are thresholds that determine when minor updates, core adjustments, or complete revisions occur. A computational approach helps formalise these processes, modelling belief revision as a sequential local search within a single causal framework. These studies aim to advance understanding of how individuals integrate new information while maintaining functional belief networks, and have broad implications for understanding the persistence of misinformation, resistance to epistemic change, and the mechanisms underlying rational belief maintenance in the face of conflicting evidence.

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